To Predict the Future, Examine the Past

Chief Concerns

Every year, the topic of this column is a prediction of what may be ahead for the fire and emergency services in the coming year.
Richard Marinucci

Admittedly, my ability in this area is very limited. I am not sure how any of my previous predictions panned out. That may be a good exercise some day when I have some spare time to look at it. In the meantime, I will try my best to look into the crystal ball and make some educated guesses. There are some easy ones. The fire service will continue to debate the competing cultures of extinguishment and safety (though they really are not mutually exclusive) because we always need something to disagree on. And, of course, we all know that FDIC International 2023 will be the biggest and best one yet. But you don’t need me to tell you that.

One way to look to the future is to examine the past. What are some of the things that were initiated in the previous years but still need work? We may even look further back to see how previous issues came about. Though we are not likely to face the exact same thing, we can learn from history, both pro and con. Another option is to look at other industries in the public and private sectors. While some may contend that the fire service is stuck in a time warp and does not change a great deal (we have all heard about “a couple of hundred years of tradition, unimpeded by progress”), I don’t agree and could offer many examples. Yet, there are things we can learn from outside our business.

Continued progress will be made in the areas of firefighter health and wellness, both physical and mental. As we gain more knowledge with respect to issues affecting firefighters, appropriate changes will be made. As an example, we are seeing more and more research regarding the relationship of firefighting and exposure to carcinogens. Recently, the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) classified a couple of cancers as Group 1, demonstrating a direct link to two cancers and firefighters. According to the IARC, mesothelioma and bladder cancer demonstrate sufficient evidence for cancer in humans. There are also five other cancers with limited evidence. This will lead to more research and pursuit of solutions that can help continue to minimize the risks associated with the job.

Staying on this topic, the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) will continue to ramp up the National Fire Registry (NFR). The purpose is to better track the incidences of cancer in firefighters and more closely make the connection to various forms of this debilitating disease. The end result offers more options for prevention and treatment. Firefighters are encouraged to participate and, through the efforts of many, we can expect a large number of firefighters to get involved. After all, it is in their best interests.

When many of the practices for reducing exposures to carcinogens were introduced, some organizations and individuals were not particularly supportive. That will continue to change. I am very encouraged as I travel around to see so many taking this seriously and changing operations. Departments are using their self-contained breathing apparatus throughout the entire phase of fire extinguishment, recognizing the threats to the health of firefighters. They are finding funds for second sets of gear. They are expanding on their decontamination processes. They are looking closer at cancer screenings for early detection. They are not accepting excuses and are putting health and wellness, in the short and long term, ahead of the old school thinking of “But what if we get another fire?” I was going to say call, but we all know that we will forego some responses if we get the chance. The reality is that rarely does this occur, so we need to prioritize our people.

Issues regarding mental health are also a real threat to this profession. There is a growing amount of research and steps being taken to address the impact on firefighters. There will be more to come as additional research and information are developed. Departments need to take this seriously and do what is necessary to promote the wellness of firefighters, including mental health.

Unless you have been on Mars or under a rock someplace, you know that electric vehicles (EVs) are part of our transportation system, an event that happened quicker than most realize. This train has left the station and will affect the fire service in a couple of ways. One of those is already happening. There is an uptick in emergency responses (fire calls) to incidents involving lithium-ion batteries. As more of these vehicles hit the market, there can be an expectation of more issues for the fire service to consider. Today, many departments have experienced the increase in fires involving batteries that power scooters. This is but one aspect of battery usage but should portend of things to come. There are different challenges to fire departments regarding extinguishment and safety. All organizations need a plan as to how battery fires will be addressed and how firefighters will be protected. There is a lot of fine work being done to try to educate responders, and more will be coming in the next year and beyond.

If you have not looked into EVs, you should probably start to learn everything you can. EV fire trucks are being built and delivered to fire departments. I am not sure how quickly EV fire trucks will replace existing internal combustion vehicles but do know there will be some. The early adopters will help to establish guidelines and help to work out the kinks. What may be coming sooner to the fire service will be EV passenger vehicles that are used by staff and for nonfire operations. Departments may well see policy makers promoting this, depending on where you are in the country. There will be more EVs entering the fire service in the coming year, and there will be an expectation for it to continue. There will be some bumps along the way, but EVs will not be going away. It is always best to get ahead of the inevitable and be prepared.

Prognosticating is never exact. You do the best you can with the information you have. Some emerging issues are obvious. When that is the case, you have a responsibility to be ready. There will always be early adopters, but eventually we can all be expected to be included. It should be no surprise that firefighter health and well-being, especially as related to cancer and mental health, will continue to be a significant focal point for the fire service. Forecasting changes within emergency response must address EVs and lithium-ion batteries.

Don’t wait until it is too late. These may be obvious predictions, but still it is the action that is taken that will determine the ultimate impact on the fire service.


RICHARD MARINUCCI is the executive director of the Fire Department Safety Officers Association (FDSOA) and chief (ret.) of the White Lake Township (MI) Fire Department. He retired as chief of the Farmington Hills (MI) Fire Department in 2008, a position he had held since 1984. He is a Fire Apparatus & Emergency Equipment and Fire Engineering Editorial Advisory Board member, a past president of the International Association of Fire Chiefs (IAFC), and past chairman of the Commission on Chief Fire Officer Designation. In 1999, he served as acting chief operating officer of the U.S. Fire Administration for seven months. He has a master’s degree and three bachelor’s degrees in fire science and administration and has taught extensively.

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